Is the “lock-in effect” finally breaking — or are homeowners still holding tight to their ultra-low mortgage rates?
Recent data shows that about 20% of homeowners now have mortgage rates above 6%, meaning they purchased or refinanced within the last year or so. That’s a notable shift from early 2025, when the majority of borrowers were firmly locked into historically low rates and reluctant to move.
We’re not real estate professionals, but we closely track the housing market because of the role a home plays in personal finances. For many families, their primary residence is one of their largest assets — so decisions to buy, sell, or refinance can significantly influence long-term planning.
As the chart shows, just over 50% of homeowners still hold mortgages below 4%, but that percentage has been slowly declining, especially over the past year. More people appear willing to reset their loan rate if the move aligns with life changes, needs, or long-term goals.
So what’s softening the lock-in effect?
In many cases, homeowners are realizing that the savings from marginal rate drops simply aren’t that impactful. For example, a 0.15% rate decrease on a typical 30-year mortgage saves roughly $35 per month on the average-priced home — less than the cost of a single streaming subscription.
For those already considering a change, the decision is becoming less about chasing the perfect rate and more about aligning housing needs with the next chapter of life.
If you're thinking about making a move this year — whether upsizing, downsizing, or relocating — we’d love to hear what’s on your mind and help you think through the financial side.
Source: CNBC.com, February 4, 2026 — “A surprising share of homeowners have high mortgage rates. Here’s the breakdown.”